Sunday, May 3, 2015
In our rush to judgment concerning the 3-year-old crop born in 2012, it seems we may have been a little hasty. And I'm as guilty as the rest.
As opposed to recent years, when the consensus around Derby time was generally that "this is a weak crop," if anybody was heard echoing that sentiment this time around, it was a husband telling his wife in the confines of their living room. It certainly wasn't in public.
The 141st Run for the Roses ended in triumph for American Pharoah, trainer Bob Baffert, the Zayat family, jockey Victor Espinoza, and the hordes of bettors who combined to have him sitting on the board all day Saturday at 3-1, and slip to $2.90-1 in the final hour. And the connections of Firing Line, although disappointed that their colt finished second, can hold their heads up high because the son of Line of David was the only one who showed up to contest the issue.
Dortmund wasn't horrendous - he led all the way and finished third, three lengths behind The Pharoah. But he was allowed to set a leisurely pace - a quarter in 23.24 and a half-mile in 47.34 isn't what we have come to expect in this particular race. Three years ago, Bodemeister put up fractions of 22.32 and 45.39 and still finished second by 1 1/2 lengths to I'll Have Another, who was clocked in 2:01.83 for the mile and a quarter. Yesterday, American Pharoah's final time was 2:03.02. That's about 18 lengths slower than Secretariat's track record of 1:59.40.
The proponents of today who continually spout the phrase "today's athletes are bigger, stronger and faster" than those of yesterday also abound in the thoroughbred business. Yet, how many track records do we see our best horses set nowadays?
Daily Racing Form's past performances, for the past 10 or 15 years, show a speed figure to the right of every horse's running lines that depicts how far behind that horse is from the best clocking at that distance in the last three years, with 100 being the par. For instance, a horse who runs an 85 is said to have been 15 lengths slower than that best three-year clocking. A 101 would mean the horse was one length faster than the best time of the last three years. Looking over the PPs of all the Derby entrants, there were only two races listed where the horse in question posted a number over 100. Firing Line had a 101 when he won the Sunland Derby, and American Pharoah a 101 when he won the Arkansas Derby. Remember, that's not up against the track record for the distance as DRF used to list it, it's just up against the best time of the last three years.
(By the way, here are two little-known facts about the winner: one is that Pharoah is spelled wrong, it should be Pharaoh, but it's too late to change it now. Second, Pharaoh is pronounced far-oh, not fare-oh, according to the dictionary. Tom Cassidy of TVG was the only one to get it right yesterday, along with announcer Larry Collmus, who always seems to have it right, including the right pronunciation for Leparoux).
So I'm sure there will be several camps with what they consider valid reasons why their charges ran so poorly yesterday, and I hope they are legit, because I can't comprehend how Carpe Diem, Materiality, Upstart, Mubtaahij and Ocho Ocho, among others, performed so badly. With the inside horses moving out due to scratches, Ocho had the 3 post and Carpe Diem the 4, so that was no longer the major problem so many thought it would be. And Carpe Diem was off beautifully and sat a perfect trip for a mile - he had no excuse in that respect.
It will be interesting to see how many of yesterday's duds show up for the Preakness, and how many others who bypassed Louisville opt to get in on the action in Baltimore. Especially after the other trainers digest the numbers 2:03.02. And we can't give up on the trailers yet as we remember these Derby names - Holy Bull, Artax, Skip Away. They didn't fade into the sunset after failing miserably on the first Saturday in May. Far from it, they recovered from Derby-day fever and became superstars. Surely it can happen again.
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