Casse's Belief in Strategic Risk Pays Off in $300,000 In Reality
Sunday, November 30, 2025

  HALLANDALE BEACH - John Oxley’s Strategic Risk took advantage of a dream trip under Hall of Famer Javier Castellano to capture Saturday’s $300,000 In Reality at Gulfstream Park, breaking though with a performance Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse always thought he had in him.

    Strategic Risk ($14.60), who won at first asking at Gulfstream Park by 8 ¼ lengths before disappointing in his next three starts, appreciated every inch of the 1 1/16-mile third and final leg of the Florida Sire Stakes, scoring by nine lengths in the race for 2-year-olds sired by accredited Florida-bred stallions.

    The son of Noble Bird settled well off the pace set by Roger That Dana and closely attended by 6-5 favorite Khozalite and Trelawny past fractions of :23.54 and :47.98 seconds for the first half-mile. As Roger That Dana and Khozalite hooked up on the turn into the homestretch for the stretch run, Strategic Risk hit his stride with a menacing run a few lengths back before sweeping to the lead at the top of the stretch and drawing clear.

    “He was very relaxed early in the race. I knew when I asked him, he was going to explode. I was waiting for the best opportunity to ask him, and he did it. He did an amazing job. He handled everything very well,” Castellano said.

    Strategic Risk followed up his winning debut at five furlongs with a distant fourth-place finish in the six-furlong Sanford (G3) and a sixth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile With Anticipation (G2) on turf at Saratoga. He returned to South Florida to finish an even third in the Oct. 18 Affirmed, the seven-furlong second leg of the Florida Sire Stakes series won by Khozalite.

    “We thought early on he was a really good horse. He broke his maiden. I thought he was about 80 percent at that time. We took him to New York and he just didn’t do great there. He didn’t train that great. He worked on the grass and I tried him on the grass. I brought him home and gave him a little break in Ocala,” Casse said by phone from his Ocala farm. “I said, ‘You know what? He’s trained well enough, I think I’ll try him in the [Sire] Stakes,’ the last one. He ran OK. I told Mr. Oxley, ‘I think this horse is better than he ran.’ He trained well into this race.  Mr. Oxley asked me how I thought he’d run, and I said, ‘I think he’ll run really well.’ I didn’t know he’d win the way he won, but it was nice.”

    Casse was hardly surprised that Oxley’s homebred colt made great strides forward while stretching out two turns on dirt for the first time.

    “I trained his dad. I trained his mom, too, but I don’t think she ever ran. She was by Afleet Alex. His dad held a track record at Pimlico. He won the Pimlico Special at a mile and 3/16ths. He was a multiple Grade 1 winner for Mr. Oxley,” Casse said. “There’s no reason this horse shouldn’t run all day.”

    Brad Cox-trained The Town, who entered the In Reality off a late-closing second in his Oct. 24 debut at Keeneland, recovered from a disastrous start to finish second. Roger That Dana held on to finish third, 1 ¼ lengths back.

    Casse has no specific next-out plans for Strategic Risk, who ran the 1 1/16-mile distance in 1:44.85.  “This was impressive. We don’t have a lot of options after this, so we’ll try some open company,” he said. “The only think I can tell you for sure, it will be around two turns.”

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