Saturday, May 6, 2017
Even though the final wagering numbers for the Kentucky Derby are umpteen times higher than the advance totals from Friday, those early wagers usually mirror very closely who winds up being who at 6:45 p. m. on Saturday. Based on yesterday's wagering, that might not be true today.
Linemaker Mike Battaglia had Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire at 4-1 overnight, followed by Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming and Sam F. Davis winner McCraken at 5-1 and Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry at 6-1. He also had Louisiana Derby winner Girvin, Santa Anita Derby winner Gormley and Fountain of Youth winner Gunnevera at 15-1 and Blue Grass winner Irap at 20-1.
Here's what the first returns look like: Classic Empire and Irish War Cry are both 7-1, Always Dreaming is at 11-1, Gormley and Girvin at 15-1, Gunnevera at 17-1, McCraken at 25-1, and Irap at 30-1.
Then, there are a couple of real surprises. Battle of Midway, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up, is 14-1 - he's 30-1 on Battaglia's line. And Practical Joke, runner-up in both the Blue Grass and Fountain of Youth, is 14-1; his line is 20-1.
There's been a lot of talk that the pace might not be as swift as the deep closers would like and that will compromise their chances. Phfooey. Battle of Midway went past the six furlongs in 1:10.4 on the pace at Santa Anita, and Fast and Accurate was a length off a 1:10.1 in the Spiral at Turfway. Always Dreaming and State of Honor were both stalking a 1:10.3 in the Florida Derby and Irap has been just off the pace in several races where 1:10 and change popped up on the teletimer. Irish War Cry likes to be very close to the early leaders, as does Gormley. There will be no lack of pace in this edition.
The "favorites" will all come down a few points before they get in the gate this evening and it will be interesting to see just who becomes THE favorite, and at what price. I have always maintained that the best bet on the first Saturday in May was an exacta box using five horses because even the favorite and second choice 1-2 often pay off well. And there are the days when one can make a big score, such as Animal Kingdom and Nehro, who combined to elate their backers (me included) at $329.80 in 2011, or when Super Saver (the second choice at 8-1) and Ice Box (the co-fifth choice at 11-1) clicked to the tune of $152.40 in 2010. Even California Chrome, the 5/2 favorite two years ago, and Firing Line, the fourth choice at 9-1, paid $72.60. The exacta prices can make your day.
The only negative today will come after the race when the neophytes on the 6 o'clock news begin the two-week obligatory speculation about a possible Triple Crown. A positive is we'll hear Larry Collmus pronouncing Leparoux correctly.
MILLIONAIRE'S ROW - A few Florida-breds have a chance to become millionaires on today's Churchill Downs undercard. El Kabeir ($921,557) goes in the $500,000, Gr. II Churchill Downs Stakes (race 10), and World Approval ($953,763) and Enterprising ($774,040) in the $500,000, Gr. I Woodford Reserve Classic (race 11).
ALSO - There are no less than 18 runners on the Churchill Downs program who sold at OBS, including Derby horses Fast and Accurate (sold for $85,000, has earned $340,362), Untrapped (sold for $125,000, has earned $259,658), and Irap (sold for $300,000, has earned $772,600).
CELEBRATE WITH CAMPBELL'S SOUP - Ocala's Mark Casse has nine runners on the program, including six for Charlotte Weber's Live Oak Plantation. The Campbell's soup exec has Salute With Honor in the second race, Souper Fly Over in the fourth, Awesome Slew in the 10th (Gr. II Churchill Downs Stakes), World Approval in the 11th (Gr. I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic), Casses Story in the 13th, and Souper Wish in the 14th. Total purse money for the six races is $1,258,000. Wonder how many times Charlotte will opt to go to the paddock to watch one being saddled? There's no wondering how many times she'll visit the mutuel windows - all six.
BEST DERBY DAY NAME - The winner of that category is Sir Dudley Digges, in the fifth race.
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