Various theories abound in the world of thoroughbred racing, some with merit, many without, and some that are too difficult to prove.

    The "bounce theory" has been shown to be a myth so many times it's hard to comprehend how hardened handicappers can still cling to it. It's the theory that says if a horse runs a hard race, he or she must wait weeks before being expected to run back to that performance. It is debunked constantly. And the problem for the believers is that they have no idea if a horse will "bounce," so they just offer a guess. How many times have we heard one of the TV types pick against a horse because "I think he may bounce." Hardly a sound handicapping tool. 

    The one that is impossible to prove is the one that is called "the conspiracy theory," defined as an illegal plot. It goes like this: a horse gets in the gate at, say, 4-1, and when the field has gone a quarter of a mile, or more, the odds board changes and the horse in question has dropped to, say, 5/2. The horse in question always breaks on top, or is a strong second or third: we never see a significant odds change on the horse who has come out last in a field of 10.

    And, nine times out of 10, the horse wins or is right there at the wire.  

    The conspiracy theorists are convinced that some sharp hacker, or hackers, have found a way to past-post the track's computers. I am a member of that group. The tote companies and racetracks assure us that it's not happening, but I figure anybody who can hack into governments, banks and corporations, is perfectly capable of doing the same to AmTote and Autotote.

     A year or two ago, TVG analyst Gino Buccoli watched a race in which the winner was 5-1 going into the gate, and when he crossed the finish line, his odds had jumped to 7-1. Gino figured he had found something, and exclaimed: "I guess that buries the conspiracy theory." But there was one thing Gino hadn't taken into account. The horse in question had broken from the gate last, remained there for three-quarters of the race and was still last at the top of the stretch. He then swept by the field with a powerful run. It was still a perfect example of the CT. The hacker wasn't going to jump in on a horse who was racing last. 

    Which brings us to today's fourth race at Gulfstream Park. When Angora moved into the gate with Tyler Gaffalione, he had just dropped from 8-1 to 6-1. The gate opened and Angora shot to the lead, coasting along comfortably. When the odds changed again, he was 4-1. Tyler guided him along with ease and Angora won by 1 1/2 lengths. He paid $10. Perfect fodder for the theorists. 

 

 

     

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