Florida, New York Slots Appear to Have Peaked

Friday, October 21, 2016

Bernies Blog

With three months gone in the Florida pari-mutuel fiscal year, and six months gone in New York, it appears as though we can unofficially state that the racino boom has reached its apex in both states.

Let's start with Florida. From the time Gulfstream Park opened its slots parlor in November of 2006, the total "credits in" from all eight South Florida venues has increased every fiscal year through the last one which ended on June 30. The total amount sent through the machines at Gulfstream, Calder, Miami Jai Alai, Flagler dog track, Hialeah Park, Pompano Park, Hollywood dog track and Dania Jai Alai for 2015-2016 was a little more than $8.23 billion.

Through Sept. 30, or one quarter into the 2016-2017 fiscal year, the total is $2.01 billion, and projecting that for 12 months means the current-year numbers may not quite reach last year's record. However, with nine months remaining, anything can happen.

In New York, where the fiscal year ends on March 31, last year's contributions to the coffers came to a record $20.4 billion. The last 6 1/2 months have been pretty much on a par with last season, and the credits played number is $11.22 billion. So New York is still on track to beat its record year, but it may be close.

Pompano Park still leads the South Florida venues by a wide margin, followed by Flagler dogs, Hialeah Park, Miami Jai Alai and Calder, in that order. Gulfstream has taken a bigger lead over neighboring Hollywood dogs strictly from the amount of play angle, but its profit margin is much smaller because the dogs have a much larger takeout - 8.20% to Gulfstream's 7.12%. Why people would subject themselves to an extra 1.08% takeout when the two facilities are two minutes apart is beyond comprehension.

As for Dania Jai Alai, sandwiched between the others and with a limited chance for drawing players from the outer areas, play has been dismal since it reopened after spending a ton of cash and time on renovations. Even so, Dania's net slots revenue, less the 35% tax to the state, comes to $3.1 million.

SECOND-CROP SUCCESS - In the past 10 years, there have been precious few Florida stallions who have reached $2 million in progeny earnings as second-crop sires. Before this year, the last ones to achieve that level were With Distinction ($2.7 million) and Pomeroy ($2.1 million) in 2011. The year before, it was the incredible Wildcat Heir ($4.5 million) and Consolidator ($2 million). In 2009, Chapel Royal reached $2.9 million, but all of it came from his two first two crops of Kentuckians.

This year, two more names have been added to the list, Double Diamond Farm's First Dude and Northwest Stud's Gone Astray. Both have a chance to add to their totals in the next 2-plus months, especially with the Breeders' Cup coming up. Gone Astray, of course, will have unbeaten Three Rules in the Juvenile, and all Florida horsemen will be watching that one.