Even Exchange Wagering Couldn't Save Monmouth Park
Tuesday, September 27, 2016

    An interesting column appeared in Blood-Horse.com the other day, titled "Handle Decreased 26% at Monmouth Park in 2016." We learned that on-track handle declined 26.6%, total handle was off 26.4%, and attendance off by 9.2%. It didn't help that it rained on Haskell day, when 35,983 showed up, compared to 60,983 last year when American Pharoah was the headliner. It also didn't help that average field size dropped from 8.11 per race to 7.28. 

    Dennis Drazin, who at one time used to breed many worthwhile runners in Florida, is now an adviser to Darby Development, which operates the track. Dennis had this to say about the season, "Despite the lack of horses, we still recorded numerous accomplishments this year. The entire Monmouth Park team continues to work hard to put on outstanding racing in a fan-friendly environment that is second to none."

    Then someone on the Blood-Horse staff felt obligated to add the following: "Among those accomplishments was the advent of exchange wagering. Monmouth was at the forefront to make New Jersey the first in the nation to employ the betting platform." Well, whoop-de-do!

    I guess my favorite betting platform didn't go over too well, based on the handle figures. Of course, I could have told the Jerseyites that. Oh, wait a minute, I did, about 50 times. I'll say it one more time but I'm sure it won't be the last, nobody cares about exchange wagering. If they did, it would have exploded at Monmouth where $196,272,397 was wagered over the 57 days of the meeting. If it's such a success, why didn't Monmouth give the Blood-Horse the exchange wagering figures to go along with the others? Could it be because the figures were equal to the handle at poor Zia Park?

    Hopefully, when next season begins in Jersey, exchange wagering will be off the table, and hopefully, we'll never hear about it again. As the old song said, "I can dream, can't I?"

   THE REST OF THE STORY - I can't even guess how many years it's been since I started touting the 2-year-old sire lists as a great place for the everyday bettor to find a first-timer to make a score on. I think it began three decades ago or so when Charlie DiLibero's Lawmaker had 32 winners in his first crop and they were paying all kinds of prices. Since then, there have been many good examples of Florida sires getting hot at some time during the summer and offering smart betting strategies. Two Step Salsa a few years ago, and Kantharos in 2014 are among that group.

    The problem with using the list that includes Kentucky is that there are no disguises involved. Everybody watches Tapits, Uncle Mos, War Fronts and the rest, especially if they're trained by Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert or one of the other big guns. You rarely get one that pays, as Todd Schrupp likes to say on TVG, "big balloons."

    The secret is to key on Florida, where a stallion can get hot and the TV guys aren't paying attention. Take Northwest Stud's Gone Astray, for example. With only two crops at the races, the son of Dixie Union has gone over the $1.6 million mark in progeny earnings and we're still in September. His juvenile earnings have topped $750,000, and he has eight 2-year-old winners.

    The one who started it all was Carrie, who won at Santa Anita on May 1 and paid $25.40. Another came on Aug.27, when Gone Till Dawn made his debut at Gulfstream Park for owner Ebony L. Maynard. Going by my system, I boxed five horses in a $1 exacta, including Gone Till Dawn. It cost $20. Gone Till Dawn won and paid $49.80 and the $2 exacta came back $289.60. I picked up $144.80.

    On Sept. 4, the day after the sensational Gone Astray colt Three Rules won the Affirmed Stakes at Gulfstream, Carlos Olivero brought first-timer Mr. Pinocchio home at a price of $16.60.  

     Yesterday, however, I blew it. I had been watching TVG for several hours, and was awaiting a Gone Astray first-timer named Heart Astray in the first race at Presque Isle, post time set for 5:35. But I got a call from a friend about going out for dinner, and in my haste to make the 5:15 engagement, I forgot to place my bet before I left home. The late Paul Harvey could have related 'the rest of the story.' Heart Astray won by nearly four lengths and paid $103.20, $32.20 and $17.20. Needless to say, I became ill when I came home and watched the replay.

    The moral of the story is this: finding the right first-timer is only the initial part of the equation, you actually have to bet on it, too.   

     

 

    

 

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