Conspiracy Theory Invades Parx
Monday, July 11, 2016

    If you asked 100 hard-core gamblers to name their 10 biggest pet peeves when it comes to thoroughbred racing, you can bet it would almost be unanimous that late-changing odds would be at or near the top of every list. Nothing makes a player grumble louder than watching his 5-1 shot cross the line in front, and looking up to see the the horse is now 3-1.  

    Or 6-1 to 5/2, as it happened in the second race at Parx today. All through the betting in the $7,500 claimer at one mile, the No. 8 horse, Invocation, was heavily favored. The 4 horse, Sierra Sun, was sitting a couple of points or more under his morning line of 10-1. When the gate opened, Sierra Sun was 6-1

    Silvestre Gonzalez put Sierra Sun on the lead, and they continued in front all the way to the wire. I thought I saw the odds on the bottom of the screen change somewhere in the running, but didn't pay attention because I was looking for the four horses I had in the double. I did notice it at the top of the stretch when Sierra Sun was pulling away and it said "5/2" under his number. I was stunned.

    I waited for analysts Rich Perloff and Nick Hines to make a mention of it, but there wasn't a word.

    There are a great many people, myself included, who think that there are computer wizards out there who have discovered a way to get a wager down after they see who is in front, who is sitting second, and who has been left at the gate. I have NEVER seen the odds change late on a horse who has been running last all the way, other than going up, of course. Sierra Sun wound up paying $7.60, and Invocation, who had been so heavily bet for 25 minutes, was also 5/2 at the end.

    I decided to send an email to TVG, asking them to replay the race because I wanted to see just when the odds changed after the gate opened, and if it was more than once. But Perloff and Hines were more interested in getting viewers to send in questions and/or their selections for upcoming races.

    Track operators everywhere insist that they are able to monitor from where and at what time the last of the wagers come in, and it's only the lag time at changing the board that causes what appear to be past-posting bets. My thought is that hackers around the world have hacked into the computers of banks, corporations, governments, etc., and beating AmTote or any other wagering company would be a piece of cake.

    I always have to bring up the case of Gino Buccola, one of the TVG stalwarts who used to be on late in the day and at night. In one race, the winner had gone off at 5-1, and by the time they hit the wire he was in front, and at 7-1. Gino quickly jumped in and said that should show the conspiracy theorists. How wrong he was. The horse in question was off last and was still last at the top of the stretch. He made a monster move in deep stretch to win - the bets were already in and he wasn't part of them. Inadvertently, Gino had helped back the theory.

    To me, the only answer is to lock the windows when the first horse is getting in the gate. If people can't get their wagers in by that time, they need to find another pastime. Many have complained that a half hour or 25 minutes is too long between races. It's plenty of time to get a bet in.    

    WHERE ARE YOU? - The Blood-Horse freshman sire list for Florida now shows that Ocala Stud Farm's Overdriven has had his first winner, but I can't find it anywhere. Not on that list, or on Overdriven's stallion page, or Ocala Stud's website. Strange things are happening.   

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