To the Beyer Group: What Was Wrong With I'll Have Another's Race?
5-14-2012
(May 14, 2012) - Daily Racing Form has been obsessed with Beyer numbers ever since some time in the 90s, when Steven Crist decided to add the controversial data to his racing newspaper, numbers concocted by his close friend, Andy Beyer, and several of his associates. Beyer numbers are intended to give handicappers a better evaluation of just how good (or bad) any race is, and the Beyer group insists the numbers are strictly objective. I have never been able to comprehend how these numbers can be considered objective, when they are assigned by the Beyer people, and are often changed after the fact based on further evidence.
In last Friday's Racing Form, Dick Jerardi devoted a full page to the subject, "Derby Beyers are on the wane."
Here's how Jerardi began his column: "From 1987 to 2011, the average winning Kentucky Derby Beyer was 109. Until 2009, it was really a given that the winner had to get into that range. No More.
Once is an aberration. Four times is a pattern.
Mine That Bird got a 105 when he won in 2009 by 6 3/4 lengths. Which means the rest of them ran way below expectations.
Super Saver got a 104 in 2010 when Calvin Borel carved out a third perfect trip in four years.
Animal Kingdom got a 103 in 2011 when the rest of the field seemed to be going backward in the stretch.
I'll Have Another got a 101 in his Derby win.
Do you detect a pattern?
At the rate we are going, 99 is going to become the new 109 in another year or two.
What exactly is going on here?"
I know what's going on here - the Beyer Boys have gotten so entranced with their own importance that reality has left the building! Here's another of Jerardi's conclusions a few paragraphs down. "Big Brown (109), Street Sense (110) and Barbaro (111) were serious Derby winners. So were Unbridled (116) and Winning Colors (113). By the numbers, any of those horses would have blown away this Derby field."
What?
I'll Have Another raced the mile and a quarter in a highly-respectable 2:01.83. In fact, it's the third fastest clocking of the last nine years, behind only Barbaro's 2:01.36 and Big Brown's 2:01.82. The latter would have beaten I'll Have Another by a nose. To go one step further, I'll Have Another's clocking is faster than Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Genuine Risk, Pleasant Colony, Swale, Ferdinand, Alysheba, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, Go For Gin, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Smarty Jones, Giacomo, Street Sense and a bunch of others since 1979.
It boggles the mind to have Jerardi try to make us believe that Winning Colors, with her 2:02.20 clocking, would have "blown away" I'll Have Another, who raced the distance in 37 hundredths faster. We're supposed to believe this fairy tale because the Beyer group assigned Winning Colors a 113 while I'll Have Another was only assigned a 101. I don't believe it. I will never believe it. But the Beyer Boys expect the world of racing to take their word for it. They can't prove it with factual information, they can only point to their own subjective method of awarding numbers. The truth is, they don't have to be right just because they emphatically say there are.
Here's a head-scratching sidelight. In DRF's American Racing Manual, on the pages that chronicle the Derby winners since 1875 when Aristides won edition No. 1, Beyer numbers are listed only back to Lil E. Tee in 1992, Then there are two blank spaces for Strike the Gold (1991) and Unbridled (1990), but there's a 102 for Sunday Silence in 1989. Prior to that, there are no numbers listed. They were pre-Beyer. Yet, Jerardi claims Unbridled got a 116 and Winning Colors, the year before, a 113.
The group has gone so far as to assign Beyer numbers for Derbies before Beyer numbers came into being. That's about as subjective as it can get.
Only time will tell just how much class I'll Have Another has. Until then, his Derby clocking is pretty impressive, whether the Beyer Boys want to believe it or not. And to think he would have been "blown away" by those who ran slower but have received higher Beyers is laughable.
Will the Horse of Today Succumb to the Bounce?
5-9-2012
(May 8, 2012) - What do Shackleford, Conveyance, Join in the Dance and Bob Black Jack have in common? Easy, they were the last four pacesetters in the Kentucky Derby, before Bodemeister, none of whom finished in the top three. In fact, other than Shackleford last year - he lasted for fourth - the other three couldn't be found with binoculars when the real running began.
The last time a Derby frontrunner finished second was in 2007, when Hard Spun, at odds of 10-1, finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Street Sense. And it was in 2004, when War Emblem won at 20-1, that a horse last went wire-to-wire to take the roses.
The 2012 Derby will always be remembered as much for Bodemeister's sensational effort on the front end as it will be for Mario Gutierrez's superior ride in his first Derby try. And now, it will be interesting to see if the hypocrites come out in force. There isn't a writer or broadcaster anywhere (except here) who doesn't subscribe to the infamous "bounce" theory. The theory that holds that if a horse runs a hard, fast race, he will regress in his next start due to the exertion of the previous race, especially if the next start comes too quickly after the tough race. In other words, he will "bounce." So far, nobody has been able to come up with a time frame pinpointing just when a horse can come back without bouncing.
Considering Bodemeister's second-place finish, his fractions were eye-opening - :22.32, :45.39, :1:09.80, 1:35.19, en route to the final time of 2:01.83. Bob Baffert has already announced that his colt will return for the Preakness, along with I'll Have Another, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Hansen, Liaison, Optimizer and Went the Day Well. At least eight others have expressed interest in joining the cast, so a full field of 14 is all but ensured.
Just as the handicappers espouse Beyer numbers while evaluating upcoming stakes, then throw the numbers out the window if they like somebody else whose Beyers are not as high, the intereresting element in the Preakness will be to see how many of the experts conveniently forget about the bounce and pick Bodemeister to win at Pimlico. Because most certainly the son of Empire Maker fills the bill as a candidate to bounce, from the standpoint of the fractions he put up in Louisville, and the short two weeks to the Preakness. Plus, the appearance of Hansen will ensure another fast pace despite the mile and three-sixteenths. (Those who don't understand the game will cede the race to Bodemeister because it's a sixteenth of a mile shorter).
In Daily Racing Form, there was a selector's page with 23 crack handicappers picking their top four in the Derby. Only Brad Free picked I'll Have Another to win. Steve Andersen and Jay Hovdey picked him third, and Randy Goulding and Marcus Hersh had him fourth. The consensus had Union Rags first with 59 points, Bodemeister second with 39, Daddy Nose Best third with 25, and Creative Cause fourth with 20. I'll Have Another collected seven points based on a 5-3-1 basis.
Union Rags, who was 9/2 in the morning line and 9/2 when the betting began on Friday morning, hung around at that price for nearly two days before drifting up to 5-1 by post time. Bodemesiter was 7-1 early, began to creep lower as race time drew near, and wound up as the 4-1 favorite with a late crush of money. Double-figure favorites (paying $10 or more) have mostly become the norm in the last decade.
Despite the obvious buzz that will surround Bodemeister all the way up to Preakness day, Dullahan is the horse who was showing the most late run at Churchill, and he would have passed Bodemeister in another jump. The neophytes will say that this race is shorter, and they will be right, it will just be their thinking that is wrong. It's a mile and three-sixteenths, not six furlongs. He won the Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth with the same type of run.
Kobe and Pau Will Make the Sport More Interesting
5-1-2012
(May 1, 2012) - Through the years, the list of celebrities from the world of entertainment and sports who have embraced the sport of kings has been practically endless. From Bing Crosby in the Golden Years, to such as NFL coach Bill Parcells, Philadelphia Philles outfielder Richie Allen, NFL quarterback Jake Delhomme, the lovely Bo Derek, songwriter Burt Bacharach, TV exec David Milch, Partridge Family heartthrob David Cassidy, ace relief pitcher Rob Murphy, four-time All-Star catcher Paul LoDuca, NFL linebacker Bryan Cox, Green Bay Packers tight end Max McGee and running back Paul Hornung, and a host of others too numerous to mention. Their presence has enriched racing, and the public has become equally enthralled.
Anytime new faces appear who have the public's attention, it's good news for the sport. And it's especially so with superstars like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.
The Los Angeles Lakers pair recently became 50 percent owners of a 4-year-old named Siempre Mio, who was a prize in a charity auction at Riviera Country Club for the benefit of the Lakers Foundation. Santa Anita CEO Mark Verge donated a 25 percent interest in the California-bred gelding by Dixie Union, which included ownership for one year, with no expenses. As it turned out, Kobe and Gasol got in a bidding war, with Kobe prevailing at $8,000. So Verge offered another 25 percent to Gasol for $8,000, and the Lakers' center took it.
Siempre Mio is no great shakes as a racehorse, but he's not chopped liver, either. He won a maiden special at Santa Anita on Jan. 28 and repeated on March 31 for a $22,500 tag. But he raced 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.75, so he'll make life interesting. All told, he's 2-1-0 in five starts with earnings of $55,700. All Siempre Mio has to do is make it to the winner's circle, especially if it's during the time when the Lakers are still in the playoff hunt, and the publicity buzz generated will be enormous.
Verge is also going to name a race after Kobe, and introduce the players to the Arcadia Suite, among other amenities. One quick victory is all it will take to get Kobe and Gasol all revved up, and ready to visit the next 2-year-old sale in California.
WHEN WILL IT EVER END? - Whomever came up with the old adage, "the more things change, the more they stay the same," had to be somebody involved with racing. It's the never-ending story. If there weren't at least two factions battling each other in every state that employs thoroughbred racing, nobody would be happy. Except for the customers.
In Illinois, Arlington Park - which opens Thursday - has been embroiled in a dispute with the Illinois Thoroughbred Horseman's Association, over, who would believe it - a contract. Seems to me we've heard this one before in Florida. Every year.
The disagreement is over millions of dollars in casino impact fee funds that were released to the racing industry in August. The casinos were trying to keep the fees, which were being held in escrow until they were finally released. The horsemen want the fees to be paid in full via purse increases by the end of the 2013 Arlington meeting. Management wants an extra year to pay out the fees, through the 2014 meeting.
In addition, Mike Campbell, the ITHA prez, had his stall allotment cut from 12 to seven, and he was moved from his regular barn out to the boondocks. Arlington's moguls denied that the dispute had anything to do with the reduction in stalls or the move to the boonies, citing, instead, Campbell's poor win record the past two seasons.
First of all, the state of the current union begs that the knock-down drag-out battles between tracks and horsemen's organizations must end. And not in the distant future. People on both sides keep bemoaning where the sport is heading, yet do nothing to right the ship except hold more and more symposiums on medication. I have news for them. Medication is an issue, but it's not nearly as serious as the in-fighting among the various groups that never seems to abate!!!!
As for Arlington's treatment of Campbell, you guys are too naive to continue to run a racetrack. When you decided to treat Campbell so shabbily, you knew you were going to cause an uproar, and you did it anyway! If Mike Campbell had his 12 stalls, and they were near the track, it wouldn't cause the slightest problem for you. Arlington's management won't get one individual associated with the game who would believe there were no ulterior motives behind slapping the prez the way they did. He's the president of the horsemen's group, and he deserves the respect that goes along with the position - and his race record shouldn't be a factor.
If the two groups don't come to an agreement, the horsemen have that inalienable right to withhold the exporting of the track's simulcasting signal. Florida's horsemen found out what good that does a few years back - the loss of million dollars in revenue, for both parties. And another unnecessary black eye for the sport.